The Institute for Mathematical Behavioral Sciences presents
"Modeling of Infectious Diseases: Bridging Data and Models"
Two-day conference
October 28 & 29, 2011
Friday 9:00 a.m.-5:00 p.m.
Saturday 10:00 a.m.-5:00 p.m.
Social Science Plaza A, Room 2112 (Luce Conference Room)
Infectious diseases form a continual societal problem that comes with several mysteries. We experience this with a common flu; some years, in spite of dire predictions, not much happens, while other years an unexpected outbreak can be serious. Experts from several disciplines, who bring different perspectives on this topic, will gather at this IMBS conference to explore these concerns.
For further information, please contact Janet Phelps, jjphelps@uci.edu.
Speakers | Agenda | Titles and Abstracts | Photos | Videos
BRUCE CASWELL - Brown University
MICHAEL DEEM - Rice University
ZHILAN FENG - Purdue University
ANDREW NOYMER - UCI
JAMES HOLLAND JONES - Stanford
JUSTIN LESSLER - Johns Hopkins
RAMANAN LAXMINARAYAN - Princeton
CARL SIMON - University of Michigan
DAVID SHAY - U.S. Centers for Disease Control - Influenza Division
This conference is partially supported by Grant Number UL1 RR031985 from
the National Center for Research Resources (NCRR), a component of the
National Institutes of Health (NIH) and the NIH Roadmap for Medical Research, P.I. Andrew Noymer.
FRIDAY, OCTOBER 28
9:00 – 9:10 Comments by Andrew Noymer, Dept. of Sociology and Donald Saari, Director
of IMBS
9:10 – 10:00 DAVID SHAY, “How should we assess the annual health burden associated
with influenza?”
10:00 – 10:10 Discussion
10:10 – 10:20 BREAK
10:20 – 11:10 ZHILAN FENG, “Applications of epidemiological models to public
health policymaking”
11:10 – 11:20 DISCUSSION
11:20 – 12:10 BRUCE CASWELL, “Dissipative Particle Dynamics Simulation of Red
Blood Cells and their Suspensions in Health and Disease”
12:10 –12:20 DISCUSSION
12:20 – 1:45 LUNCH BREAK
1:45 – 2:35 RAMANAN LAKSMINARAYAN, “Transboundary problems in infectious diseases”
2:35 – 2:45 DISCISSION
2:45 – 3:00 BREAK
3:00 – 3:50 JUSTIN LESSLER, “Model motivated data collection: The Fluscape Study”
3:50 – 4:00 DISCUSSION
4:00 – 4:50 MICHAEL DEEM, “Immunce response to and evolution of influenza virus”
4:50 – 5:00 DISCUSSION
SATURDAY, OCTOBER 29
10:00 – 10:50 ANDREW NOYMER, “Gompertz models of influenza mortality, USA 1959-2007”
10:50 – 11:00 DISCUSSION
11:00 – 11:50 JAMES HOLLAND JONES, “Networks, Models of Social Interaction, and
the Dynamics of Infectious Disease”
11:50 – 12:00 DISCUSSION
12:00 – 1:45 LUNCH BREAK
1:45 – 2:35 CARL SIMON, “Complex systems approach to modeling the spread of HIV”
2:35 – 2:45 DISCUSSION
2:45 – 5:00 SUMMARY AND GENERAL DISCUSSION -- “WHERE DO WE GO FROM HERE?”
BRUCE CASWELL - Brown University
“Dissipative Particle Dynamics Simulation of Red Blood Cells and their Suspensions
in Health and Disease”
MICHAEL DEEM - Rice University
“Immune Response to and Evolution of Influenza Virus”
The influenza virus has a high evolution rate, which makes designing the annual flu vaccine challenging. A mismatch between the strain in the vaccine and the strain infecting the public leads to a less effective vaccine and broader infection in the population. A precise measure of how different the immune system perceives the vaccine and virus to be enables a better design of the flu shot. I will discuss a method to predict vaccine efficacy that we have developed. Data show that this method is at least as predictive as, and sometimes more so than, animal model studies. Interestingly, the immune system typically recognizes the H1N1 strain of the flu to a greater degree than the H3N2 strain, leading to better flu shots for H1N1 than H3N2. The evolution rate of H1N1 is also greater than that of H3N2, presumably due to greater pressure on the virus to evolve.
I will also discuss a technique we have developed for early detection of new flu strains.
I will show that this method is able to detect new versions of the flu earlier than
the present approaches used by health authorities.
ZHILAN FENG - Purdue University
“Applications of epidemiological models to public health policymaking”
Mathematical modeling of infectious diseases has affected vaccination policy throughout the developed world and, via the WHO, elsewhere. Policy goals vary with disease and setting, but preventing outbreaks is common. This is attained by exceeding the population immunity threshold. While immunity seems to be at or above the threshold for many vaccine-preventable diseases in the US, policymakers are concerned about heterogeneity due to personal-belief exemptions to vaccination. We use an epidemiological model with preferential mixing to evaluate the impact of such heterogeneity on our efforts to prevent disease outbreaks. A more generalized mixing that incorporates both spatial and age heterogeneities will also be discussed.
JAMES HOLLAND JONES - Stanford
“Networks, Models of Social Interaction, and the Dynamics of Infectious Disease”
JUSTIN LESSLER - Johns Hopkins
“Model motivated data collection: The Fluscape Stud”
Models of infectious disease transmission predict that the population density and
connectivity of communities should have a profound effect on the history of influenza
exposure that members of those communities will have. Smaller, less connected communities
are expected to be occasionally missed by a years influenza epidemics, while larger,
more connected communities should experience an epidemic every influenza season. Likewise,
we would expect highly connected individuals and those living with them to experience
more frequent influenza exposure than those with fewer social contacts.
The Immune Landscapes of Influenza in Southern China (the Fluscape study) is a cohort
study in and around Guangzhou, China aimed at exploring the dynamics of influenza
infection across communities with highly varying population density and connectivity.
This study compares the antibody profiles of individuals, households and communities
across a spatial transect extending to the northeast of Guangzhou. These antibody
profiles serve as a record of the past influenza exposure of study participants, though
an imperfect one.
In this talk I will present the motivations behind the Fluscape study and the key
findings from the first year of data collection. These findings include strong variation
between communities in the immune profile of those who live there and a distinct
age effect in determining the neutralization titers to influenza strains. These findings
will be put in context of the original model hypotheses and their implications for
future modeling of influenza.
RAMANAN LAXMINARAYAN - Princeton
“Transboundary problems in infectious diseases”
ANDREW NOYMER - UCI
Gompertz models of influenza mortality, USA 1959-2007
DAVID SHAY - U.S. Centers for Disease Control - Influenza Division
“How should we assess the annual health burden associated with influenza?”
CARL SIMON - University of Michigan
“Complex systems approach to modeling the spread of HIV”