Stefan Herzog
I am interested in how to model and improve people’s judgment and decision making---with a special emphasis on how to create the wisdom of crowds within one mind (i.e., dialectical bootstrapping; Herzog & Hertwig, 2009, see "selected literature" below).
My broader research interests are: bounded rationality and heuristics, wisdom of crowds, judgmental and statistical forecasting, behavioral decision research and decision support.
Herzog, S. M., & Hertwig, R. (2009). The wisdom of many in one mind: Improving individual judgments with dialectical bootstrapping. Psychological Science, 20, 231–237. doi:10.1111/j.1467-9280.2009.02271.x PDF
Herzog, S. M., & Hertwig, R. (2013). The crowd-within and the benefits of dialectical bootstrapping: A reply to White and Antonakis (2013). Psychological Science, 24, 117–119. doi:10.1177/0956797612457399
Curriculum Vitae
Publications
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press Frey, R., Hertwig, R., & Herzog, S. M. (in press). Surrogate decision making: Do we have to trade off accuracy and procedural satisfaction. Medical Decision Making. 2013 Herzog, S. M., & Hertwig, R. (2013). The crowd-within and the benefits of dialectical bootstrapping: A reply to White and Antonakis. Psychological Science, 24, 117-119. doi:10.1177/0956797612457399 Full text Herzog, S. M., & Hertwig, R. (2013). The ecological validity of fluency. In C. Unkelbach & R. Greifeneder (Eds.), The experience of thinking: How the fluency of mental processes influences cognition and behavior (pp. 190-219). New York: Psychology Press. 2012 Schooler, L. J., Hertwig, R., & Herzog, S. M. (2012). How smart forgetting helps heuristic inference. In P. M. Todd, G. Gigerenzer, & the ABC Research Group, Ecological rationality: Intelligence in the world (pp. 144-166). New York: Oxford University Press. |
All publications
Herzog, S. M., Ostwald, D. (in press). The value of Bayesian statistics [letter to the editor]. Nature.
Frey, R., Hertwig, R., & Herzog, S. M. (in press). Surrogate decision making: Do we have to trade off accuracy and procedural satisfaction? Medical Decision Making. doi:10.1177/0272989X12471729
Herzog, S. M., & Hertwig, R. (2013). The crowd-within and the benefits of dialectical bootstrapping: A reply to White and Antonakis (2013). Psychological Science, 24, 117–119. doi:10.1177/0956797612457399
Herzog, S. M., & Hertwig, R. (2013). The ecological validity of fluency. In C. Unkelbach & R. Greifeneder (Eds.), The experience of thinking: How feelings from mental processes influences cognition and behavior (pp. 190–219). London: Psychology Press.
Schooler, L. J., Hertwig, R., & Herzog, S. M. (2012). How smart forgetting helps heuristic inference. In P. M. Todd, Gigerenzer, G. & the ABC Research Group, Ecological rationality: Intelligence in the world (pp. 144–166). New York: Oxford University Press.
Herzog, S. M., & Hertwig, R. (2011). The wisdom of ignorant crowds: Predicting sport outcomes by mere recognition. Judgment and Decision Making, 6, 58–72. PDF
Erev, I., Ert, E., Roth, A. E., Haruvy, E., Herzog, S. M., Hau, R., Hertwig, R., Stewart, T., West, R., Lebiere, C. (2010). A choice prediction competition, for choices from experience and from description. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 23, 15–47. doi:10.1037/a0013025 PDF
Hertwig, R., & Herzog, S. M. (2009). Fast and frugal heuristics: Tools of social rationality. Social Cognition, 27, 661–698. doi:10.1521/soco.2009.27.5.661 PDF
Herzog, S. M., & Hertwig, R. (2009). The wisdom of many in one mind: Improving individual judgments with dialectical bootstrapping. Psychological Science, 20, 231–237. doi:10.1111/j.1467-9280.2009.02271.x PDF
Hertwig, R., Herzog, S. M., Schooler, L. J., & Reimer, T. (2008). Fluency heuristic: A model of how the mind exploits a by-product of information retrieval. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 34, 1191–1206. doi:10.1037/a0013025 PDF
Herzog, S. M., Hansen, J., & Wänke, M. (2007). Temporal distance and ease of retrieval. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 43, 483–488. doi:10.1016/j.jesp.2006.05.008 PDF