MBA Courses
Decision Analysis
Data Analysis and
Optimization
Managerial Quantitative Analysis
Biography
Assistant Professor Casey Lichtendahl teaches Quantitative Analysis
courses in Darden’s MBA programs. His research focuses on
eliciting, evaluating, and combining probability forecasts for use in corporate
and governmental decision-making situations. His other
research interests include modeling consumption preferences for use in personal
financial decisions. His work has appeared in leading
academic journals such as Management Science and Operations
Research. He serves as an Associate Editor for the
Institute of Operations Research and Management
Sciences’ (INFORMS) journal Decision Analysis.
His research paper, “Probability Elicitation, Scoring Rules, and
Competition among Forecasters,” which appeared in Management Science,
received an honorable mention from the Decision Analysis Society for its 2007
Publication Award. He was a runner-up in the
2010 INFORMS Case Competition. Lichtendahl has
been a nominee for Darden’s Outstanding Faculty Award in 2009, 2010, and
2011. In 2009, he received the University of
Virginia’s Mead-Colley Award.
Prior to joining Darden in 2006, Lichtendahl served as a
visiting instructor in the economics department at Duke University while in his
PhD program at Duke University’s Fuqua School of Business.
He began his professional career in the beverage
industry. In the 1990s, he co-founded the Tradewinds Beverage
Company. In 2011, the company was acquired by Nestlé Waters
North America.
Publications
Lichtendahl Jr., Kenneth C., Yael Grushka-Cockayne, and Robert L. Winkler,
“Is It Better to Average Probabilities or Quantiles?,”
Management Science (forthcoming).
Lichtendahl Jr., Kenneth C. and Samuel E. Bodily, “Multiplicative
Utilities for Health and Consumption,” Decision Analysis,
9 (4), (TBD).
Lichtendahl Jr., Kenneth C., Raul O. Chao, and Samuel E. Bodily
(2012), “Habit Formation From Correlation Aversion,” Operations
Research, 60 (3), 625-637.
Lichtendahl Jr., Kenneth C. and Samuel E. Bodily (2010), “Preferences
for Consumption Streams: Scale Invariance, Correlation Aversion, and Delay
Aversion under Mortality Risk,” Operations Research, 58 (4),
985-997.
Lichtendahl Jr., Kenneth C. (2009), “Random Quantiles of the Dirichlet
Process,” Statistics and Probability Letters, 79 (4),
501-507.
Lichtendahl Jr., Kenneth C. and Robert L. Winkler (2007), “Probability
Elicitation, Scoring Rules, and Competition Among Forecasters,” Management
Science, 53 (11), 1745-1755.
OTHER PUBLICATIONS
Lichtendahl Jr., Kenneth C. (2010), “Bayesian Aggregation of Experts’
Forecasts,” Wiley Encyclopedia of Operations Research and Management
Science. Published Online, January 14, 2010.
Laseter, Tim, Kenneth C. Lichtendahl Jr., and Yael Grushka-Cockayne
(2010), “Cleaning the Crystal Ball,” Strategy + Business, May
2010.
Jose, Victor Richmond R., Kenneth C. Lichtendahl Jr., Robert F. Nau,
and Robert L.Winkler (2007), “Objective Bayesian Analysis for the Multivariate
Normal Model: Comment,” in J.M. Bernardo et al., eds., Bayesian Statistics
8, Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2007, 557-558.
Expertise
Decision Analysis
Bayesian
Statistics
Probability Forecasting
Combining
Forecasts
Multiattribute Utility Theory
Dynamic
Programming
Current Research
Jose, Victor Richmond R., Yael Grushka-Cockayne, and Kenneth C. Lichtendahl
Jr., "Trimmed
Opinion Pools and the Crowd's Calibration Problem."
Lichtendahl Jr., Kenneth C., Yael Grushka-Cockayne, and Phillip E. Pfeifer,
“The Wisdom of the Competitive Crowd,” revise and resubmit at
Operations Research.
Raul O. Chao, Lichtendahl Jr., Kenneth C., and Yael Grushka-Cockayne, “Incentives for Complex R&D Projects,” revise and resubmit
at Production and Operations Management.
Lichtendahl Jr., Kenneth C. and Yael Grushka-Cockayne, “Perceived Repeated Risk and the Allais Paradox,” revise and
resubmit at Theory and Decision.
Teaching Materials
Lichtendahl Jr., Kenneth C. and Yael Grushka-Cockayne, “Ballis’s
Benchmark,” Case Study and Teaching Note, UVA-QA-1621, 2010.
Lichtendahl Jr., Kenneth C. and Yael Grushka-Cockayne, “Forecasting
Engine,” On-line Forecasting Exercise, 2010.
Lichtendahl Jr., Kenneth C. and Yael Grushka-Cockayne, “PriceMax,” Case
Study and Teaching Note, UVA-QA-0748, 2010.
Lichtendahl Jr., Kenneth C. and Michel Schlosser, “Skanska USA
Building,” Case Study, UVA-QA-0735, 2009.
Lipson, Marc, Samuel E. Bodily, and Kenneth C. Lichtendahl Jr., “Kelly
Solar,” Case Study and Teaching Note, UVA-F-1606, 2009.
Lichtendahl Jr., Kenneth C., “Evaluating and Eliciting Expert Opinion,”
Technical Note, UVA-QA-0734, 2009.
Lichtendahl Jr., Kenneth C., Samuel E. Bodily, and Robert T. Clemen,
“SnackChips in China,” Case Study and Teaching Note, UVA-QA-0698,
2008.
Lichtendahl Jr., Kenneth C. and Samuel E. Bodily, “Airbus and Boeing:
Superjumbo Decisions,” Case Study and Teaching Note, UVA-QA-0720,
2008.