Faculty & Research

Kenneth C. Lichtendahl Jr.

Kenneth C. Lichtendahl Jr., Assistant Professor of Business Administration

  • AB, Princeton University; MBA, University of Virginia; MS, Stanford University; PhD, Duke University
Office: FOB 131
Phone: +1-434-924-7708
E-mail: LichtendahlC@darden.virginia.edu

More Information

MBA Courses

Decision Analysis
Data Analysis and Optimization
Managerial Quantitative Analysis

Biography

Assistant Professor Casey Lichtendahl teaches Quantitative Analysis courses in Darden’s MBA programs.  His research focuses on eliciting, evaluating, and combining probability forecasts for use in corporate and governmental decision-making situations.  His other research interests include modeling consumption preferences for use in personal financial decisions.  His work has appeared in leading academic journals such as Management Science and Operations Research.  He serves as an Associate Editor for the Institute of Operations Research and Management Sciences’ (INFORMS) journal Decision Analysis.

His research paper, “Probability Elicitation, Scoring Rules, and Competition among Forecasters,” which appeared in Management Science, received an honorable mention from the Decision Analysis Society for its 2007 Publication Award.  He was a runner-up in the 2010 INFORMS Case Competition.  Lichtendahl has been a nominee for Darden’s Outstanding Faculty Award in 2009, 2010, and 2011.  In 2009, he received the University of Virginia’s Mead-Colley Award. 

Prior to joining Darden in 2006, Lichtendahl served as a visiting instructor in the economics department at Duke University while in his PhD program at Duke University’s Fuqua School of Business.  He began his professional career in the beverage industry.  In the 1990s, he co-founded the Tradewinds Beverage Company.  In 2011, the company was acquired by Nestlé Waters North America.

Publications

Lichtendahl Jr., Kenneth C., Yael Grushka-Cockayne, and Robert L. Winkler, “Is It Better to Average Probabilities or Quantiles?,” Management Science (forthcoming).

 Lichtendahl Jr., Kenneth C. and Samuel E. Bodily, “Multiplicative Utilities for Health and Consumption,” Decision Analysis, 9 (4), (TBD).

 Lichtendahl Jr., Kenneth C., Raul O. Chao, and Samuel E. Bodily (2012), “Habit Formation From Correlation Aversion,” Operations Research, 60 (3), 625-637.

Lichtendahl Jr., Kenneth C. and Samuel E. Bodily (2010), “Preferences for Consumption Streams: Scale Invariance, Correlation Aversion, and Delay Aversion under Mortality Risk,” Operations Research, 58 (4), 985-997.

Lichtendahl Jr., Kenneth C. (2009), “Random Quantiles of the Dirichlet Process,” Statistics and Probability Letters, 79 (4), 501-507.  

Lichtendahl Jr., Kenneth C. and Robert L. Winkler (2007), “Probability Elicitation, Scoring Rules, and Competition Among Forecasters,” Management Science, 53 (11), 1745-1755.

OTHER PUBLICATIONS

Lichtendahl Jr., Kenneth C. (2010), “Bayesian Aggregation of Experts’ Forecasts,” Wiley Encyclopedia of Operations Research and Management Science. Published Online, January 14, 2010.

Laseter, Tim, Kenneth C. Lichtendahl Jr., and Yael Grushka-Cockayne (2010), “Cleaning the Crystal Ball,” Strategy + Business, May 2010.

Jose, Victor Richmond R., Kenneth C. Lichtendahl Jr., Robert F. Nau, and Robert L.Winkler (2007), “Objective Bayesian Analysis for the Multivariate Normal Model: Comment,” in J.M. Bernardo et al., eds., Bayesian Statistics 8, Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2007, 557-558.

Expertise

Decision Analysis
Bayesian Statistics
Probability Forecasting
Combining Forecasts
Multiattribute Utility Theory
Dynamic Programming

Current Research

Jose, Victor Richmond R., Yael Grushka-Cockayne, and Kenneth C. Lichtendahl Jr., "Trimmed Opinion Pools and the Crowd's Calibration Problem."

Lichtendahl Jr., Kenneth C., Yael Grushka-Cockayne, and Phillip E. Pfeifer, “The Wisdom of the Competitive Crowd,” revise and resubmit at Operations Research.

Raul O. Chao, Lichtendahl Jr., Kenneth C., and Yael Grushka-Cockayne, “Incentives for Complex R&D Projects,” revise and resubmit at Production and Operations Management.

Lichtendahl Jr., Kenneth C. and Yael Grushka-Cockayne, “Perceived Repeated Risk and the Allais Paradox,” revise and resubmit at Theory and Decision.

Teaching Materials

Lichtendahl Jr., Kenneth C. and Yael Grushka-Cockayne, “Ballis’s Benchmark,” Case Study and Teaching Note, UVA-QA-1621, 2010.

Lichtendahl Jr., Kenneth C. and Yael Grushka-Cockayne, “Forecasting Engine,” On-line Forecasting Exercise, 2010.

Lichtendahl Jr., Kenneth C. and Yael Grushka-Cockayne, “PriceMax,” Case Study and Teaching Note, UVA-QA-0748, 2010.

Lichtendahl Jr., Kenneth C. and Michel Schlosser, “Skanska USA Building,” Case Study, UVA-QA-0735, 2009.

Lipson, Marc, Samuel E. Bodily, and Kenneth C. Lichtendahl Jr., “Kelly Solar,” Case Study and Teaching Note, UVA-F-1606, 2009.

Lichtendahl Jr., Kenneth C., “Evaluating and Eliciting Expert Opinion,” Technical Note, UVA-QA-0734, 2009.

Lichtendahl Jr., Kenneth C., Samuel E. Bodily, and Robert T. Clemen, “SnackChips in China,” Case Study and Teaching Note, UVA-QA-0698, 2008.

Lichtendahl Jr., Kenneth C. and Samuel E. Bodily, “Airbus and Boeing: Superjumbo Decisions,” Case Study and Teaching Note, UVA-QA-0720, 2008.

©